First Edition Of Our 2012 Playoff Odds

Now that we've more or less reached the halfway point in the 2012 season, it's time to start looking at the playoff odds generated by our season simulation. As a reminder, I simulate the remainder of the MLS season 10,000 times based on a team's home and away goal scoring results, weighted for recent games. Compared with just projecting out based on PPG, this takes better account of strength of schedule, home/away differential, and team changes that affect more recent results (such as injuries and new signings).

Here's the table of average league position, average points, percent chance of making the playoffs, percent chance of being in the top 3 in a conference (and thus avoiding the play-in round), percent chance of winning the Supporters Shield, percent chance of winning the MLS Cup. I've also added the average number of points needed to make the playoffs and this season I've broken it down by conference, since there are no wild cards anymore.